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C5: Real-time forecasting of dike performance

Start: 01/09/2023
End: 31/08/2027
Status: Active

Contact details

Anton van der Meer

TU Delft

Goal of the Project

The goal is to develop an approach on how levee deformation measurements can be used to monitor and to predict slope failure. Monitoring and predicting the performance of the dike will inform emergency response decisions during floods, and will at the same time enhance the insight in long-term performance of the dike.

Scientific Motivation

Past studies have made significant progress on developing techniques for satellite monitoring (Ozer, 2020), drones (Klerk, 2022) and in-situ monitoring (Aguilar Lopez et al., 2019) of flood defenses. However, individual monitoring techniques are still characterized by significant uncertainties and noise in observations. Moreover, most of the monitoring research has been into the long-term performance, while very limited work has been done on using monitoring for real-time risk and reliability assessments by coupling with geotechnical models (Ozer, 2020). Particularly the time-dependent response during extreme flood loads is highly uncertain and requires consideration of transient behaviour as opposed to the (near) steady state conditions considered in regular assessment and design. To make a next step, it is the objective of this project to used satellite-based monitoring combined with other monitoring techniques to enable real-time reliability assessment of earthen dikes along rivers. Outcomes will inform emergency response decisions during floods, and will at the same time enhance the insight in long-term performance.

Case Study

  • Flood Proof Holland: In this test polder of the TU Delft new digital monitoring technologies are tested.
  • Purmerdijk: This secondary flood defense protects the Purmer polder against flooding from the higher elevated canal. The canal water level is relatively constant. In this case study the influence of meteorological conditions on the dike deformations is of particular interest.
  • Lekdijk: This primary flood defense protects low-lying polders against flooding form the Rhine River. In this case study the influence of high river water levels on the dike deformations is of particular interest.

Expected Outcomes

  • Method to interpreted soil surface deformation measurements. How to relate the underlying physical processes to the measured deformations
  • Method to incorporate soil surface deformation measurements in reliability analysis of embankment slope stability
  • Prototype dashboard of monitoring / early warning system for geotechnical embankment failure

Involved Endusers

Deltares is a mission-driven Dutch knowledge institute for water and soils. hrough applied research, in-depth knowledge is developed that is necessary and useful for decisions concerning quality of life.

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HKV operates on a three-part mission that aims to create a safe and sustainable environment for everyone related to our business; employees, clients, partners, suppliers and society.

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As a regional water authority, Hoogheemraadschap Hollands Noorderkwartier is a government organisation. Major tasks include: inhabitants have dry feet and land doesn't get flooded, there is sufficient fresh water, there is sufficient clean water and the roads are safe..

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Skygeo provides their clients with essential geotechnical insights that allow them to understand very early how ground movement will impact their valuable assets.

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Last modified: 15/11/2024

Contributing researchers

Anton van der Meer

TU Delft

Supervision team

Prof. dr. ir. Bas Jonkman

TU Delft

Dr. Juan Aguilar Lopez

TU Delft

User group

Project outputs

FRM in focus: video

The Future FRM Tech programme develops flood resilient landscapes for rivers and estuaries as well as technical solutions for water barriers. Watch the video to get to know more about the project

29/04/2021 by Prof. dr. ir. Bas Jonkman

View details

Bevat: Video & Audio