Projects

Goal of the project

The main goal of the research is to develop a method for assessing the effectiveness of combinations of nature-based and technical solutions under climate change. First, relatively simple models will be developed at a cross section level. Subsequently, these models will be scaled up from a cross section to a system level, and incorporated in a probabilistic framework. This model will give insight in costs, and risk reduction of various combinations of solutions, and it will give insight in the optimal combination of interventions.

Additionally, as input to the model, the uncertainties of climate scenarios will be quantified by means of scenarios and bandwidths. This will give insight in uncertainties of future hydraulic conditions. These results will also be used by the other researchers in the Future FRM Tech program.

Scientific motivation

There is limited insight in the effectiveness and risk-reduction of combinations of nature based and technical solutions. Uncertainties are involved in climate change (sea level rise, river discharges) as well as uncertainties in the long term performance of the adaptation measures, particularly nature based solutions which are generally more dynamic. This research develops a method for the risk based evaluation for combinations of nature based and technical solutions under climate change, and will improve insight in optimal flood risk management strategies.

Case Study

The developed method will be applied on the riverine program cases, where various room for the river and dike strengthening solutions will be evaluated. The method and the application insights will be shared with the program to support the other program cases. This supports other researchers in applying and evaluating their research results for the program cases.

A second case study is that of the Galveston Bay in Texas (USA). Adaptation pathways over time are identified for this case. The optimal strategy will be investigated given the involved long term uncertainties.

Expected Outcomes

1. Report and data on (uncertainties of) climate scenarios.
2. Method for evaluation of nature-based and technical solutions.
3. Application of method on program cases (focus on river case).
4. Application of method on the case of Galveston Bay (Texas) including long term uncertainties and adaptive pathways.