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Verdeling van water en sediment over splitsingspunten onder invloed van klimaatverandering: Consequenties en mitigatie

Start: 6-2020
End: 6-2024
Status: Active

Contact details

Mohammad Kifayath Chowdhury

TU Delft


The output involves assessment of the changes to the bifurcation region morphology and its water partitioning under different future scenarios of climate change and engineering interventions and mitigation strategies for unwanted cases. Future river management can be benefitted from the assessment and strategies.

Navigation through the Rhine (Köln) (top), drought in agricultural lands due to lack of fresh water (lower left), flood event of 1995 (lower right)

Motivation and Practical Challenge

Water and sediment distributed at the Pannerdense Kop and IJsselkop bifurcations greatly influence the navigation, flood safety, and freshwater supply in the Netherlands. Due to the expected changes in the discharge, sediment flux, and sea level in the future due to climate change, we expect a morphological adjustment in the river system and the bifurcation region. Any such adjustment would significantly affect the partitioning of water and sediment. However, the nature of the bifurcation region adjustment is still unclear. Moreover, engineering interventions dominate the Rhine river system, and we also want to know their future influence on the bifurcation region. Therefore, in this project, we aim to address the development of the Upper Dutch Rhine bifurcation region under climate change and anthropogenic interventions in future scenarios.

Research Challenge

How will the bifurcation region respond to climate change and anthropogenic interventions in future scenarios?

Innovative Components

The first component of our approach is assessing the bifurcation region response. This component has two parts: 1. assessment of the bifurcation region development in the last century, and 2. assessment of the response in the future. First, we assess the previous development in the region by analyzing available hydraulic and morphological data collected over the last century, such as bed level, surface grain size, water level, and water discharge. Second, we work on a model for the future assessment part. We use the first analyzed data to calibrate and validate the model. We will base our future hydrograph and sea-level scenarios based on the predictions by IPCC and KNMI. In addition, we will also simulate scenarios involving planned engineering interventions based on discussion with the stakeholders. The project’s second component involves formulating mitigation strategies for unwanted responses of the bifurcation region. Based on our assessment in the first component, we will identify unwanted scenarios and test different mitigation strategies in this part.

Relevant for whom and where?

  • River managers and policymakers
  • For managing the bifurcation region and before implementing a new intervention in the bifurcation region.

Findings and Practical Application

Will be filled with content when project ends

Status for Day to Day Practice

The morphological response at the bifurcation region should be carefully considered before implementing any new interventions close to the bifurcations.

Next Steps

There is insufficient sediment transport data available at the bifurcation region that hampers proper validation of models. We currently base our work on old data collected two decades ago. This can be improved by more frequent sediment transport measurements.

Last modified: 09/11/2022

Contributing researchers

Mohammad Kifayath Chowdhury

TU Delft

Supervisory team

dr. ir. Astrid Blom

TU Delft

dr. Ralph Schielen


Project outputs

Developing a Model to Study the Climate Change Impact on River Bifurcations in Engineered Rivers

28/02/2024 by Mohammad Kifayath Chowdhury

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Bevat: Samenvatting

Semicentennial Response of a Bifurcation Region in an Engineered River to Peak Flows and Human Interventions

14/04/2023 by Mohammad Kifayath Chowdhury

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Stormingskenmerken bij de "Pannerdense Kop"-splitsing

De stromingsstructuur verschaft hierover nuttige informatie door de driedimensionale kenmerken van de stroming te detailleren. Deze samenvatting gaat voornamelijk over enkele waarnemingen van de ADCP-onderzoeken die tussen november 2019 en februari 2020 op de Pannerdense Kop zijn uitgevoerd.

11/02/2021 by Mohammad Kifayath Chowdhury

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Bevat: Samenvatting

Synthese Rivers2Morrow

In dit synthese rapport is meer informatie te vinden over het Rivers2Morrow Programma en de bijbehorende projecten.

27/06/2022 by Wybren de Jong

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Bevat: Algemene Informatie Rivers2Morrow

  • Chowdhury, M. K., Blom, A., & Schielen, R. M. J. (2021a). Bifurcation Morphodynamics in an Engineered River. River, Coastal and Estuarine Morphodynamics (RCEM) Meeting, Delft University of Technology (Online).
  • Chowdhury, M. K., Blom, A., & Schielen, R. M. J. (2021b). Flow Structure at the Pannerdense Kop Bifurcation. Rivers in an uncertain future. NCR Days 2021: Rivers in an uncertain future, University of Twente, The Netherlands (Online).
  • Chowdhury, M. K., Blom, A., Ylla Arbos, C., Verbeek, M. C., Schropp, M. H. I., & Schielen, R. M. J. (2022). Channel Bed Erosion Characteristics in the Upper Dutch Rhine Bifurcation Region. NCR DAYS 2022: Anthropogenic Rivers, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands.


“We willen het systeem op een natuurlijke manier robuust en klimaatbestendig te maken.”

08/08/2023 door dr. Ralph Schielen

Ralph Schielen (Rijkswaterstaat) heeft ongeveer vijf jaar geleden Rivers2Morrow binnen Rijkswaterstaat in gang gezet. Op het gebied van beheer en beleid van de Nederlandse...

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