Innovative components
Three different methods have been used to quantify the uncertainty in discharge distribution at the Pannerdensche Kop, the first bifurcation of the Dutch Rhine river: analysis of 30 years of discharge measurements, the elicitation of 6 experts in the field of discharge distribution and the application of a hydraulic model.
Implications to practice
The quantified uncertainty in discharge distribution for design conditions varies significantly between the three methods. Data analysis shows uncertainty in discharge distribution of up to 10%, the hydraulic model of up to 5% and the experts only up to 3%. In practice, this uncertainty must be taken into account in the assessment of flood risks.
Related Content
Conference proceedings
- Twijnstra, J. J., Gensen, M. R. A., Warmink, J. J., Huthoff, F., Horn, G., & Hulscher, S. J. M. H. (2020). A systematic error in the water balance of the Dutch river Rhine. In M. Boersema, R. Schielen, E. van Eijsbergen, & J. G. Rinsema (Eds.), Managing changing rivers: NCR Days 2020, Nijmegen, February 13 & 14: Book of abstracts (pp. 84-85). Netherlands Centre for River Studies.
- Steenblik, S., Gensen, M. R. A., Warmink, J. J., & Hulscher, S. J. M. H. (2020). Quantifying uncertainties in the discharge distribution over the river Rhine branches using expert elicitation. In W. Uijttewaal, M. J. Franca, D. Valero, V. Chavarrias, C. Ylla Arbos, R. Schielen, & A. Crosato (Eds.), River Flow 2020: Proceedings of the 10th Conference on Fluvial Hydraulics (Delft, Netherlands, 7-10 July 2020) (pp. 797-804). CRC Press/Balkema.
- Steenblik, S., Gensen, M. R. A., Warmink, J. J., & Hulscher, S. J. M. H. (2020). Using expert opinion to quantify the uncertainty in the discharge distribution at the Pannerdense Kop. In M. Boersema, R. Schielen, E. van Eijsbergen, & J. G. Rinsema (Eds.), Managing changing rivers: NCR Days 2020, Nijmegen, February 13 & 14: Book of abstracts (pp. 82-83). Netherlands Centre for River Studies.
- Berends, K. D., Gensen, M. R. A., Warmink, J. J., & Hulscher, S. J. M. H. (2020). Thirty-year analysis of a changing river system using Bayesian rating curves. In W. Uijttewaal, M. J. Franca, D. Valero, V. Chavarrias, C. Ylla Arbos, R. Schielen, & A. Crosato (Eds.), River Flow 2020: Proceedings of the 10th Conference on Fluvial Hydraulics (Delft, Netherlands, 7-10 July 2020) (pp. 1022-1026). CRC Press/Balkema.
- Horn, G., Huthoff, F., Hulscher, S. J. M. H., Warmink, J. J., Gensen, M. R. A., & Twijnstra, J. J. (2020). Water balance in the Dutch river Rhine and rating curve uncertainty. In W. Uijttewaal, M. J. Franca, D. Valero, V. Chavarrias, C. Ylla Arbos, R. Schielen, & A. Crosato (Eds.), River Flow 2020: Proceedings of the 10th Conference on Fluvial Hydraulics (Delft, Netherlands, 7-10 July 2020) (pp. 2171-2178). CRC Press/Balkema. https://doi.org/10.1201/b22619-304
Last modified: 25/10/2021