- Novel method to estimate uncertainty of the impact of human intervention in rivers.
- Good agreement with classical Monte Carlo simulation at lower computational cost.
- Efficiency increases if more interventions are evaluated.
- Accuracy of uncertainty estimation is explicitly quantified.
- Method applied to idealised human intervention designed to lower flood risk.
Implications to practice
To analyse the expected impact of a river intervention, decision-makers rely on computations with complex physics-based hydraulic models. The outcome of these models is sensitive to uncertain input parameters, but long model runtimes are infeasible with standard computer resources. A new method was demonstrated on an ideal 1D situation for river interventions that aim at lowering water levels. The application to more complex modelling approches (2D and morphological) will be studied in future work.
- Berends, K. D., Warmink, J. J., & Hulscher, S. J. M. H. (2018). Efficient uncertainty quantification for impact analysis of human interventions in rivers. Environmental Modelling & Software, 107, 50–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.05.021.
- Here is available the full list of related conference abstracts related to this project.
The method described in this paper including test data for the cases described is available for download at https://dataverse.nl/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=hdl:10411/GCS6HE.
A new implementation of the tool including example data is available from: https://github.com/kdberends/coral
Uncertainty quantification of flood mitigation predictions and implications for decision making
Using a new approach, we have now quantified the uncertainty of twelve interventions along the River Waal. We demonstrate that the choice between interventions can be different when uncertainty is taken into account.
14/11/2018 by Koen Berends et al.
Contains: Dataset access
Last modified: 30/01/2019