River flooding is a major safety concern. Sophisticated models are used to design ways to decrease flood risk but it is computationally demanding to calculate how uncertain these model predictions are. Using a new approach, we have now quantified the uncertainty of twelve interventions along the River Waal. Results show significant, but not problematically high uncertainty. We demonstrate that the choice between interventions can be different when uncertainty is taken into account.
Implications to practice
- Berends, K. D., Straatsma, M. W., Warmink, J. J., & Hulscher, S. J. M. H. (2018). Uncertainty quantification of flood mitigation predictions and implications for decision making. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 1–25. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-325.
- Here is available the full list of related conference abstracts related to this project.
Efficient uncertainty quantification for impact analysis of human interventions in rivers
Last modified: 30/01/2019