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Uncertainty quantification of flood mitigation predictions and implications for decision making

Published on 14/11/2018 by Berends, K. D., Straatsma, M. W., Warmink, J. J., & Hulscher, S. J. M. H.

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Koen Berends

Deltares

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Innovative components

River flooding is a major safety concern. Sophisticated models are used to design ways to decrease flood risk but it is computationally demanding to calculate how uncertain these model predictions are. Using a new approach, we have now quantified the uncertainty of twelve interventions along the River Waal. Results show significant, but not problematically high uncertainty. We demonstrate that the choice between interventions can be different when uncertainty is taken into account.

Implications to practice

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Efficient uncertainty quantification for impact analysis of human interventions in rivers

A novel method is presented to estimate model uncertainty with a reduced number of model evaluations.

14/06/2018 by Koen Berends et al.

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Contains: Dataset access Model or tool upon request

Last modified: 30/01/2019